Give Statistics a Chance: A Platonic Dialogue by MC Complete

Steven Pinker’s “Our Better Angels: Why Violence has Declined” is a must read.  Or, in other words, you must read it.

It is a brilliant work of history and psychology: the history of violence and the psychology of violence.  

And then there’s the evidence.  So, so much evidence.  It’s like somebody finally turned on the lights in a dark room.

Since “Better Angels” is such a required book, I have invited Steven Pinker -- that is, a fictional representation of Steven Pinker -- to my blog for a Platonic Dialogue.

Daniel: You know, Steven, when I mention your book to people, they’re always incredulous.

Steven: Well, of course they are.  I’ve revealed History’s Best Kept Secret.

Daniel: Yes, but it’s not just that.  People are incredulous for a very specific reason.

Steven: You mean Hitler?

Daniel: Exactly.  Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.  The two World Wars and the Fascist/Communist genocides.

Steven: So tell them to read my book, which will stun them with the inescapable conclusion that violence has declined despite the best efforts of Hitler and Stalin.

Daniel: But I read your book.  You throw a lot of logic, math and data at the Hitler argument, and it’s all very brilliant, but when it’s all said and done, I can’t say what the bottom line is.  I feel like you’ve pulled a fast one.

Steven: Hitler, Hitler.  Why are people so obsessed with Hitler?  Why can’t they focus on Kruschev and Gorbachev?  Look, things may have been bad in the first half of the 20th century, but since World War 2, things have been unprecedentedly peaceful.  Some people aren’t aware of this, but my book proves that it is so.

Daniel: You mean the Pax Americana?

Steven: Please don’t use that term!  It’s called “The Long Peace”.  During most of it, there were two superpowers, one of which was an “Evil Empire”.

Daniel: But maybe that was just a run of good luck.

Steven: Really?  What about the World Wars and the Holocaust?  Maybe they were just bad luck?

Daniel: Maybe.  We can’t really say, can we?

Steven: All I am saying is “Give Statistics a Chance”.  If you analyze the 20th century statistically relative to historical trends, you can show that the World Wars are statistically insignificant, whereas The Long Peace is statistically significant.  In other words, the World Wars seem to be a run of bad luck, but The Long Peace is *not* just good luck -- it’s a game changer.

Daniel: I guess so.

Steven: Anyway, why are people so obsessed with war?  My book is about so much more than that.  Human violence is about so much more than that.  Just to give one example, murder rates are about 1/30 of what they were Medieval Europe, due to a (more or less) consistent decline over the centuries.  And murders have always killed more people than wars, even the World Wars.

Daniel: Yes, you’re absolutely right.  Your book would be just as impressive if we just skipped Chapters 5 and 6 (“The Long Peace” and “The New Peace”).  In fact, maybe even more impressive.

Steven: Don’t skip them!  They’re very important!

Daniel: You know what other chapter we could skip?

Steven: Don’t skip any chapter!  That’s cherrypicking!

Daniel: Chapter 1, where you bash the Torah.

Steven: Oh, you were offended by that, were you?

Daniel: Well, to be perfectly honest, I actually wasn’t offended.  But most of my friends, who happen to be Jewish Fundamentalists, would be very offended.  There’s no way they’ll keep reading after Chapter 1.

Steven: Well, I’m sorry, but as a pacifist, the Torah just makes me mad.  It makes my blood boil.

Daniel: Look, I understand, but Chapter 1 is really not necessary.  You could remove it from the book and barely notice its absence.  All that is accomplished by Chapter 1 is writing off a section of your potential audience.  It may not be a large section of your audience, but it’s a section of your audience that means a lot to me...